Market Explained puts the forces that move markets in one place: rates, inflation, oil, commodity cycles and valuations. It shows where whole sectors and countries are being punished by conditions that are likely temporary, finds the companies inside them that are cheap and strong enough to get through it, and checks the risk you'd be taking.
Benjamin Graham's observation is the whole strategy. Prices swing with fear, headlines and macro shocks. Value is set slowly by earnings, cash flow and balance sheets. The gap between the two is where the opportunities are.
Rates jump, oil spikes, a war starts, a commodity crashes. Investors sell entire sectors and countries at once, good companies along with bad ones. Homebuilders sold off when mortgage rates rose. Airlines sold off when oil spiked.
Conditions normalise. Companies with solid balance sheets and real cash flow come out the other side, and their prices catch up with their value. Patience, typically 18 to 24 months in our backtests, is what turns a punished price into a return.
"The person that turns over the most rocks wins the game."Peter Lynch
Lynch found his best ideas by looking at more companies than anyone else. Nobody can do that by hand across thousands of stocks every day. Market Explained does the first pass for you, the same way every day. It narrows the field to a short list worth your time, so you research the ten most interesting stones instead of guessing which ten to lift.
We're human, and we act on feelings. Most investors hear about an opportunity after it has moved, and then the fear of missing out takes over. They buy after the rally, at higher valuations, and the edge is gone: the margin of safety that made it an opportunity has been paid away to the people who bought earlier.
The pressure shows up first in bond yields, credit spreads, commodity prices and valuations. With everything measured against its own history in one place, you can see a sector being punished while it happens and decide calmly, with a plan, before the crowd does.
Twelve indicators, from yields to oil to credit spreads, each ranked against its own 10-year history. See what's stretched and which sectors it hurts.
MacroSectors pushed down mainly by macro conditions rather than their own problems, markets cheap against their history, and commodities near the bottom of their cycle.
US sectors · World · CyclesInside each punished area, rank every company on value, quality and how far it has fallen. Value-trap flags warn about losses, weak cash flow and heavy debt.
ScreenerEvery signal is backtested using only data available at the time, including the ones that didn't work.
BacktestJudge every idea on drawdowns, volatility and down-market behaviour as well as return. An optional trend filter steps aside in long bear markets.
Backtest · OverviewThe goal isn't to beat the market every year. It's to earn roughly market returns when things go well, give up a little in euphoric years, and be protected (or even make money) when the market falls. Lower drawdowns make it easier to stay invested, and staying invested is how returns compound.
Backtest of the app's main strategy (the two best companies in each of the five most punished US sectors, held 18 months, with the risk-off trend filter), January 2019 to October 2026. Hypothetical, before costs and taxes; past results don't guarantee future ones.
Backtests only use prices, macro data and company filings that were public on each date. Annual reports count from the day they were filed with the SEC.
Cheap-country and commodity-cycle signals didn't beat the market from 2010 to 2026, and the app says so. You see what works, what doesn't, and why.
When an oil shock or a war drives a return, the app attributes it to the shock rather than to the strategy.
A research tool for your own analysis, not investment advice. Data from FRED, Yahoo Finance, the SEC and Wikipedia may be delayed or wrong.